Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172026 260820 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.40    151.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  18.4  18.0  16.6  12.9  10.4  15.6  17.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  58.0  64.0  69.0  70.0  68.0  65.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   105.0 120.0  99.0 110.0 115.0 105.0  54.0  77.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  66.0  64.0  67.0  65.0  64.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0 -10.0 -16.0  -7.0  -7.0   0.0   4.0   6.0  F  F VF  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        2.5%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h       13.3%       31.4%       22.3%
 30kt / 24h        6.2%       14.3%       10.3%
 35kt / 24h        5.3%       14.3%        9.8%
 40kt / 24h        5.3%       14.3%        9.8%
 45kt / 36h       22.3%       38.1%       30.2%
 55kt / 36h       10.5%       15.4%       12.9%
 55kt / 48h       49.1%       38.0%       43.5%
 70kt / 48h       26.0%       25.2%       25.6%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       54.5%       58.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.72

 WP172026 260820 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.40    151.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  18.4  18.0  16.6  12.9  10.4  15.6  17.2  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  66.0  64.0  67.0  65.0  64.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0 -10.0 -16.0  -7.0  -7.0   0.0   4.0   6.0  U  U VU  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%