Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172026 260820 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.90    150.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  19.3  15.0  18.4  10.6  16.2  12.3  17.8  F  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0  68.0  70.0  69.0  69.0  41.0 103.0  91.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   120.0  99.0 110.0 115.0 102.0  71.0  36.0  51.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  66.0  65.0  66.0  65.0  62.0  57.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0 -17.0  -7.0  -6.0  -3.0   2.0  -1.0   1.0  F VF  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        3.2%        2.4%
 25kt / 24h       18.4%       38.0%       28.2%
 30kt / 24h        8.6%       19.5%       14.1%
 35kt / 24h        3.0%       19.1%       11.0%
 40kt / 24h        3.0%       19.1%       11.0%
 45kt / 36h       29.4%       49.5%       39.4%
 55kt / 36h       16.0%       25.6%       20.8%
 55kt / 48h       47.0%       45.8%       46.4%
 70kt / 48h       26.7%       32.5%       29.6%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       64.6%       63.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.80

 WP172026 260820 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.90    150.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  19.3  15.0  18.4  10.6  16.2  12.3  17.8  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  66.0  65.0  66.0  65.0  62.0  57.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0 -17.0  -7.0  -6.0  -3.0   2.0  -1.0   1.0  U VU  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%