Rapid Intensification Guidance WP172026 260820 12UTC Storm Located at : 12.80 150.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 44.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 36.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.00 F TC SIZE [%] 93.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.7 20.0 17.9 11.8 15.8 16.0 14.6 10.9 F N F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 66.0 69.0 70.0 70.0 68.0 69.0 28.0 103.0 N N N N N N U F Potential [kt] 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 122.0 96.0 120.0 131.0 83.0 44.0 39.0 31.0 F F F F N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 66.0 66.0 66.0 63.0 59.0 59.0 52.0 N N N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -7.0 -1.0 -7.0 -2.0 9.0 6.0 6.0 F F N F N U N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 5.8% 7.2% 6.5% 25kt / 24h 37.2% 56.6% 46.9% 30kt / 24h 20.2% 39.9% 30.1% 35kt / 24h 12.7% 39.9% 26.3% 40kt / 24h 12.7% 39.9% 26.3% 45kt / 36h 42.3% 62.9% 52.6% 55kt / 36h 26.3% 40.0% 33.1% 55kt / 48h 41.8% 53.6% 47.7% 70kt / 48h 26.1% 40.7% 33.4% 65kt / 72h 62.6% 64.8% 63.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.84 WP172026 260820 12UTC Storm Located at : 12.80 150.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 93.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.7 20.0 17.9 11.8 15.8 16.0 14.6 10.9 N N N U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 66.0 66.0 66.0 63.0 59.0 59.0 52.0 N N N N N F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -7.0 -1.0 -7.0 -2.0 9.0 6.0 6.0 U U N U N F N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%