Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172026 260820 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.70    149.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  17.9  12.3  10.9  14.3  13.4  13.9  20.4  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   69.0  70.0  70.0  69.0  68.0  49.0 102.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    96.0 120.0 131.0 124.0  67.0  11.0  -2.0  43.0  F  F  F  F  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  67.0  69.0  69.0  70.0  66.0  64.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -1.0  -7.0  -7.0   3.0   5.0   5.0   0.0  F  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.1%        7.7%        6.9%
 25kt / 24h       42.5%       62.0%       52.2%
 30kt / 24h       23.0%       45.9%       34.5%
 35kt / 24h       11.7%       45.9%       28.8%
 40kt / 24h       11.7%       45.9%       28.8%
 45kt / 36h       42.4%       65.6%       54.0%
 55kt / 36h       26.9%       43.7%       35.3%
 55kt / 48h       48.0%       54.0%       51.0%
 70kt / 48h       26.6%       41.0%       33.8%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       62.5%       62.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.88

 WP172026 260820 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.70    149.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  17.9  12.3  10.9  14.3  13.4  13.9  20.4  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  67.0  69.0  69.0  70.0  66.0  64.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -1.0  -7.0  -7.0   3.0   5.0   5.0   0.0  U  N  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%