Rapid Intensification Guidance WP172026 260821 00UTC Storm Located at : 14.70 149.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 43.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 38.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.00 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.2 12.2 15.0 12.2 17.3 18.6 11.2 16.8 F F F F F N F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 61.0 63.0 63.0 63.0 64.0 6.0 99.0 16.0 N N N N N U F U Potential [kt] 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 126.0 122.0 109.0 112.0 104.0 14.0 10.0 20.0 F F F F F U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 65.0 63.0 63.0 58.0 56.0 47.0 47.0 N N N N U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -7.0 -2.0 -1.0 3.0 1.0 4.0 8.0 F F N N N N N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 10.3% 11.7% 11.0% 25kt / 24h 45.3% 63.8% 54.6% 30kt / 24h 27.8% 52.8% 40.3% 35kt / 24h 17.0% 52.8% 34.9% 40kt / 24h 17.0% 52.8% 34.9% 45kt / 36h 45.7% 61.4% 53.6% 55kt / 36h 28.4% 38.7% 33.6% 55kt / 48h 49.6% 48.3% 49.0% 70kt / 48h 25.7% 31.0% 28.4% 65kt / 72h 62.5% 51.2% 56.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.74 WP172026 260821 00UTC Storm Located at : 14.70 149.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.2 12.2 15.0 12.2 17.3 18.6 11.2 16.8 U U U U N N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 65.0 63.0 63.0 58.0 56.0 47.0 47.0 N N N N F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -7.0 -2.0 -1.0 3.0 1.0 4.0 8.0 U U N N N N N F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%