Rapid Intensification Guidance WP172026 260821 06UTC Storm Located at : 14.90 148.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 75.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 36.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.8 13.0 10.5 14.8 12.1 19.4 14.3 15.7 F F F F F N F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 63.0 63.0 63.0 64.0 52.0 102.0 82.0 22.0 N N N N N F N U Potential [kt] 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 127.0 133.0 130.0 129.0 74.0 42.0 -17.0 -28.0 F VF F F N N U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 66.0 63.0 63.0 59.0 54.0 49.0 44.0 N N N N U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 -1.0 1.0 2.0 4.0 F F N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 59.3% 50.1% 54.7% 25kt / 24h 87.5% 91.8% 89.7% 30kt / 24h 83.5% 91.8% 87.7% 35kt / 24h 70.5% 91.8% 81.1% 40kt / 24h 67.1% 91.8% 79.5% 45kt / 36h 76.9% 86.2% 81.5% 55kt / 36h 56.4% 77.9% 67.2% 55kt / 48h 41.8% 74.5% 58.2% 70kt / 48h 25.2% 60.4% 42.8% 65kt / 72h 54.8% 59.3% 57.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.74 WP172026 260821 06UTC Storm Located at : 14.90 148.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.8 13.0 10.5 14.8 12.1 19.4 14.3 15.7 U U U U U N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 66.0 63.0 63.0 59.0 54.0 49.0 44.0 N N N N F F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 -1.0 1.0 2.0 4.0 U U N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%