Rapid Intensification Guidance WP172026 260821 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.00 148.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 8.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 59.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 35.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.30 F TC SIZE [%] 102.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.6 16.0 19.0 16.3 18.6 10.8 14.9 16.3 F F N F N F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 114.0 112.0 106.0 105.0 92.0 103.0 16.0 26.0 F F F F F F U U Potential [kt] 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 107.0 82.0 125.0 104.0 14.0 -7.0 -13.0 -42.0 F N F F U U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 66.0 66.0 58.0 57.0 49.0 47.0 44.0 N N N U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 1.0 4.0 5.0 -2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 84.2% 64.2% 74.2% 25kt / 24h 96.9% 92.3% 94.6% 30kt / 24h 96.9% 92.3% 94.6% 35kt / 24h 95.2% 92.3% 93.8% 40kt / 24h 95.2% 92.3% 93.8% 45kt / 36h 90.6% 81.4% 86.0% 55kt / 36h 86.7% 69.4% 78.1% 55kt / 48h 78.4% 72.0% 75.2% 70kt / 48h 61.9% 52.5% 57.2% 65kt / 72h 56.0% 45.1% 50.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.76 WP172026 260821 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.00 148.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 8.20 F TC SIZE [%] 102.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.6 16.0 19.0 16.3 18.6 10.8 14.9 16.3 U U N U N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 66.0 66.0 58.0 57.0 49.0 47.0 44.0 N N N F F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 1.0 4.0 5.0 -2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%