Rapid Intensification Guidance WP172026 260821 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.10 147.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 93.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 79.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.2 19.0 16.3 19.1 21.2 15.4 13.0 17.5 F N F N N F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 63.0 64.0 65.0 50.0 102.0 82.0 7.0 32.0 N N N N F N U U Potential [kt] 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 136.0 132.0 105.0 99.0 51.0 -10.0 -15.0 -33.0 VF F F F N U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 65.0 60.0 61.0 54.0 47.0 44.0 43.0 N N N N U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 4.0 -2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 86.5% 69.1% 77.8% 25kt / 24h 96.2% 93.8% 95.0% 30kt / 24h 96.2% 93.8% 95.0% 35kt / 24h 96.2% 93.8% 95.0% 40kt / 24h 96.2% 93.8% 95.0% 45kt / 36h 88.6% 79.2% 83.9% 55kt / 36h 59.1% 66.8% 63.0% 55kt / 48h 42.5% 63.6% 53.0% 70kt / 48h 26.6% 43.7% 35.1% 65kt / 72h 26.1% 29.3% 27.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.74 WP172026 260821 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.10 147.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.2 19.0 16.3 19.1 21.2 15.4 13.0 17.5 U N U N N U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 65.0 60.0 61.0 54.0 47.0 44.0 43.0 N N N N F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 4.0 -2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%