Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172026 260822 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    146.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.8  20.7  17.5  19.9  10.9  13.2  22.0  30.0  N  N  F  N  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   62.0  62.0  52.0  15.0  96.0  20.0  24.0   2.0  N  N  N  U  F  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   117.0 116.0  52.0  32.0  10.0  13.0  27.0  73.0  F  F  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  64.0  63.0  65.0  60.0  61.0  62.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   4.0  -1.0   1.0   1.0   2.0  10.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       69.7%       42.8%       56.3%
 25kt / 24h       69.9%       74.8%       72.4%
 30kt / 24h       67.8%       74.8%       71.3%
 35kt / 24h       67.2%       74.8%       71.0%
 40kt / 24h       46.8%       74.8%       60.8%
 45kt / 36h       74.4%       60.3%       67.4%
 55kt / 36h       37.1%       43.3%       40.2%
 55kt / 48h       44.1%       37.7%       40.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        8.0%       12.5%       10.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.52

 WP172026 260822 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    146.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.8  20.7  17.5  19.9  10.9  13.2  22.0  30.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  64.0  63.0  65.0  60.0  61.0  62.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   4.0  -1.0   1.0   1.0   2.0  10.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%