Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172026 260822 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60    145.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     89.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.9  17.1  19.0  14.1  12.0  14.6  26.1  33.9  N  F  N  F  F  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   62.0  55.0  35.0  97.0  78.0   7.0  32.0   1.0  N  N  U  F  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   116.0  52.0  32.0   0.0   9.0  29.0  43.0  97.0  F  N  N  U  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  63.0  59.0  55.0  50.0  47.0  46.0  47.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0  -5.0  -1.0   2.0  15.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       63.2%       35.0%       49.1%
 25kt / 24h       63.1%       64.7%       63.9%
 30kt / 24h       58.9%       64.7%       61.8%
 35kt / 24h       58.9%       64.7%       61.8%
 40kt / 24h       37.6%       61.9%       49.8%
 45kt / 36h       82.6%       57.0%       69.8%
 55kt / 36h       34.4%       41.3%       37.8%
 55kt / 48h       46.1%       22.0%       34.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.56

 WP172026 260822 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60    145.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.9  17.1  19.0  14.1  12.0  14.6  26.1  33.9  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  63.0  59.0  55.0  50.0  47.0  46.0  47.0  N  N  F  F  F VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0  -5.0  -1.0   2.0  15.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%