Rapid Intensification Guidance WP172026 260822 18UTC Storm Located at : 20.40 143.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 78.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 61.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 97.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.5 13.3 10.9 13.4 12.4 23.8 24.7 24.7 F F F F F N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 23.0 100.0 100.0 78.0 34.0 33.0 36.0 1.0 U F F N U U U U Potential [kt] 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 27.0 -4.0 -25.0 -4.0 24.0 57.0 81.0 58.0 U U VU U U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 54.0 51.0 52.0 51.0 50.0 52.0 47.0 U U U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 2.0 -9.0 1.0 4.0 0.0 2.0 -2.0 N N F N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 64.7% 31.4% 48.1% 25kt / 24h 47.8% 44.3% 46.1% 30kt / 24h 46.3% 42.9% 44.6% 35kt / 24h 45.4% 42.9% 44.1% 40kt / 24h 33.0% 37.0% 35.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.56 WP172026 260822 18UTC Storm Located at : 20.40 143.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F TC SIZE [%] 97.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.5 13.3 10.9 13.4 12.4 23.8 24.7 24.7 U U U U U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 54.0 51.0 52.0 51.0 50.0 52.0 47.0 F F F F F F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 2.0 -9.0 1.0 4.0 0.0 2.0 -2.0 N N U N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 2.0% 1.0%