Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172026 260823 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.00    142.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     82.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     67.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.9  11.3  16.3  14.6  18.6  17.5  31.6  16.3  F  F  F  F  N  F  U  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  100.0  97.0  65.0  18.0  30.0  39.0  41.0   3.0  F  F  N  U  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]         55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -36.0 -48.0   0.0   8.0  18.0  47.0  60.0  47.0 VU VU  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  49.0  49.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -7.0   0.0   5.0   7.0  -3.0   3.0   0.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       23.0%       16.0%       19.5%
 25kt / 24h       19.8%       21.5%       20.6%
 30kt / 24h       19.8%       20.2%       20.0%
 35kt / 24h       19.8%       19.1%       19.5%
 40kt / 24h        3.6%       14.2%        8.9%
 45kt / 36h       55.0%       13.7%       34.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.58

 WP172026 260823 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.00    142.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.9  11.3  16.3  14.6  18.6  17.5  31.6  16.3  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  49.0  49.0  46.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -7.0   0.0   5.0   7.0  -3.0   3.0   0.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.7%        1.3%