Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172026 260823 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.90    140.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     57.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.8  16.3  14.2  15.7  23.5  21.5  27.7  14.1  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   97.0  65.0  18.0  29.0  39.0  38.0   1.0   2.0  F  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -48.0   0.0   8.0  11.0  22.0  80.0  21.0  -7.0 VU  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  50.0  51.0  50.0  49.0  51.0  49.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0   0.0   5.0   8.0   0.0   2.0  -3.0   3.0  F  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.3%        7.6%        8.4%
 25kt / 24h        7.3%       11.7%        9.5%
 30kt / 24h        6.8%       10.6%        8.7%
 35kt / 24h        6.8%        9.0%        7.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        6.1%        3.4%
 45kt / 36h       39.8%        5.2%       22.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.58

 WP172026 260823 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.90    140.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.8  16.3  14.2  15.7  23.5  21.5  27.7  14.1  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  50.0  51.0  50.0  49.0  51.0  49.0  49.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0   0.0   5.0   8.0   0.0   2.0  -3.0   3.0  U  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.9%        2.0%