Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172026 260823 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.60    139.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  14.2  15.9  19.4  21.6  23.4  16.2  11.4  F  F  F  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   67.0  18.0   2.0  33.0  38.0   1.0   1.0   3.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -17.0 -34.0   2.0   9.0  54.0  34.0  37.0  39.0  U VU  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  49.0  49.0  48.0  50.0  50.0  53.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0   3.0   9.0   9.0 -13.0  -2.0   2.0  -2.0  F  N  U  U VF  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.8%        7.0%        8.9%
 25kt / 24h        5.8%        9.4%        7.6%
 30kt / 24h        5.8%        7.9%        6.8%
 35kt / 24h        4.5%        6.9%        5.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%        5.1%        3.4%
 45kt / 36h       36.1%        4.7%       20.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.54

 WP172026 260823 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.60    139.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  14.2  15.9  19.4  21.6  23.4  16.2  11.4  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  49.0  49.0  48.0  50.0  50.0  53.0  53.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0   3.0   9.0   9.0 -13.0  -2.0   2.0  -2.0  U  N  F  F VU  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        4.5%        2.3%