Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172026 260823 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.20    137.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     94.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     77.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.7  17.3  20.8  21.9  16.4  25.5  16.1  18.6  F  F  N  N  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  29.0  30.0  39.0  38.0  42.0   3.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -34.0   2.0   9.0  38.0  82.0  39.0  39.0  -4.0 VU  U  U  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  50.0  49.0  48.0  53.0  51.0  54.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   9.0   9.0  -5.0   4.0  -3.0   1.0   1.0  N  U  U  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.9%        8.0%        9.5%
 25kt / 24h        7.6%       12.0%        9.8%
 30kt / 24h        6.0%       10.6%        8.3%
 35kt / 24h        4.9%        9.9%        7.4%
 40kt / 24h        2.4%        6.5%        4.4%
 45kt / 36h       43.1%        8.1%       25.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.52

 WP172026 260823 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.20    137.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.7  17.3  20.8  21.9  16.4  25.5  16.1  18.6  U  N  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  50.0  49.0  48.0  53.0  51.0  54.0  56.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   9.0   9.0  -5.0   4.0  -3.0   1.0   1.0  N  F  F  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        5.5%        2.7%