Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172026 260824 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.90    136.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     95.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     69.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.4  19.3  23.3  15.8  22.6  19.7  18.6  24.1  F  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  28.0  36.0  36.0  39.0   1.0  46.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]         55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -26.0  -3.0  34.0  58.0  33.0  -4.0  -7.0  51.0 VU  U  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  51.0  51.0  55.0  53.0  55.0  56.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0  10.0   0.0  -9.0   5.0   4.0  -2.0   2.0  U  U  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.2%        7.0%        8.1%
 25kt / 24h        7.5%       12.2%        9.9%
 30kt / 24h        6.7%       10.7%        8.7%
 35kt / 24h        6.7%       10.2%        8.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%        6.7%        4.0%
 45kt / 36h       38.5%        7.0%       22.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.40

 WP172026 260824 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.90    136.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.4  19.3  23.3  15.8  22.6  19.7  18.6  24.1  U  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  51.0  51.0  55.0  53.0  55.0  56.0  57.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0  10.0   0.0  -9.0   5.0   4.0  -2.0   2.0  F  F  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        4.9%        2.5%