Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172026 260824 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.90    133.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  19.0  23.4  31.3  30.5  21.7  32.8  32.8  N  N  N  U  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  37.0  38.0  41.0   3.0  47.0   2.0   4.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  50.0  62.0  21.0 -39.0  11.0   0.0  -9.0  U  N  N  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  54.0  58.0  52.0  53.0  54.0  54.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -5.0  -4.0 -14.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  N  F  F VF  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.8%        2.3%        3.1%
 25kt / 24h        2.2%        4.5%        3.3%
 30kt / 24h        2.1%        2.8%        2.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        2.3%        1.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        2.0%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        8.1%        0.9%        4.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        0.4%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.52

 WP172026 260824 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.90    133.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  19.0  23.4  31.3  30.5  21.7  32.8  32.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  54.0  58.0  52.0  53.0  54.0  54.0  58.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -5.0  -4.0 -14.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  N  U  U VU  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        4.1%        2.1%