Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172026 260824 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.60    132.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.5  23.7  31.3  32.9  25.0  32.2  33.3  44.3  N  N  U  U  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  39.0  42.0   1.0  46.0   2.0   3.0  39.0  U  U  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  62.0  21.0  13.0 -28.0  23.0  35.0 -31.0  N  N  U  U VU  U  N VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  60.0  52.0  56.0  60.0  58.0  61.0  61.0  U  N  U  U  N  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -5.0 -14.0  -5.0   3.0  -3.0   2.0  -7.0  F  F VF  F  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        1.8%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        1.3%        3.7%        2.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        2.3%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        2.0%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        1.5%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        4.0%        0.8%        2.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.62

 WP172026 260824 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.60    132.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.5  23.7  31.3  32.9  25.0  32.2  33.3  44.3  N  N  N  F  N  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  60.0  52.0  56.0  60.0  58.0  61.0  61.0  F  N  F  F  N  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -5.0 -14.0  -5.0   3.0  -3.0   2.0  -7.0  U  U VU  U  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.9%        2.0%