Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172026 260825 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.00    131.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.3  31.3  32.9  28.2  24.8  34.9  31.3  34.3  N  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  42.0  43.0   3.0  47.0   2.0   4.0  13.0  U  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  23.0   2.0 -14.0   7.0   5.0 -39.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  54.0  56.0  57.0  56.0  57.0  55.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.0  12.0  -9.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -4.0 -11.0  U  U  F  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        1.3%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        3.1%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        1.8%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        1.5%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        2.9%        0.7%        1.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.66

 WP172026 260825 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.00    131.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.3  31.3  32.9  28.2  24.8  34.9  31.3  34.3  N  N  F  N  N  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  54.0  56.0  57.0  56.0  57.0  55.0  56.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.0  12.0  -9.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -4.0 -11.0  F  F  U  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        4.1%        2.1%