Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172026 260825 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.80    130.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.7  32.3  28.2  20.1  29.5  31.5  38.0  30.1  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  44.0   3.0  46.0   2.0   3.0  44.0  46.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0   3.0 -14.0 -35.0   3.0  -4.0 -34.0 -12.0  U  U  U VU  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  55.0  57.0  56.0  54.0  57.0  55.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0  -9.0   0.0   3.0  -2.0   0.0 -16.0   1.0  U  F  N  N  N  N VF  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        1.6%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        2.2%        7.0%        4.6%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%        5.0%        3.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%        4.8%        3.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.6%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        1.2%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.66

 WP172026 260825 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.80    130.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.7  32.3  28.2  20.1  29.5  31.5  38.0  30.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  55.0  57.0  56.0  54.0  57.0  55.0  56.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0  -9.0   0.0   3.0  -2.0   0.0 -16.0   1.0  F  U  N  N  N  N VU  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.6%        1.3%