Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172026 260825 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.50    128.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.1  23.6  28.0  41.7  34.3  36.2  26.8  19.1  U  N  N VU  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0  46.0   2.0   2.0   3.0  44.0  44.0  48.0  U  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -10.0 -39.0 -11.0 -38.0 -16.0 -24.0   1.0  21.0  U VU  U VU  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  53.0  53.0  56.0  53.0  49.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0 -13.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N VF  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.0%        3.9%        4.0%
 25kt / 24h        3.5%        7.5%        5.5%
 30kt / 24h        3.5%        5.4%        4.4%
 35kt / 24h        3.5%        5.4%        4.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        4.2%        2.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.58

 WP172026 260825 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.50    128.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.1  23.6  28.0  41.7  34.3  36.2  26.8  19.1  N  N  N VF  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  53.0  53.0  56.0  53.0  49.0  50.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0 -13.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N VU  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.3%        1.2%