Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172026 260826 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.80    127.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.8  22.9  27.1  31.2  27.8  30.4  15.3  14.1  N  N  N  U  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   4.0  46.0  41.0  44.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -26.0 -13.7  -1.3  11.0 -35.0 -35.0 -10.0  11.0 VU  U  U  U VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.3  57.7  57.0  56.0  56.0  55.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   2.3   0.7  -1.0  -2.0 -12.0   8.0  16.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.1%        4.3%        3.7%
 25kt / 24h        3.7%       10.7%        7.2%
 30kt / 24h        3.7%        8.5%        6.1%
 35kt / 24h        3.7%        8.5%        6.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        7.6%        4.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        1.6%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.84

 WP172026 260826 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.80    127.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.8  22.9  27.1  31.2  27.8  30.4  15.3  14.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.3  57.7  57.0  56.0  56.0  55.0  61.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   2.3   0.7  -1.0  -2.0 -12.0   8.0  16.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%