Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172026 260826 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.60    125.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.1  32.5  30.1  27.9  30.7  18.8  15.1  15.3  U  U  N  N  U  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   1.0   1.0   3.0  48.0  44.0  42.0  44.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -13.0  11.0 -13.0 -35.0 -34.0 -12.0  11.0  25.0  U  U  U VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  57.0  59.0  57.0  59.0  58.0  63.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0 -12.0   9.0  16.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  F  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.7%        2.5%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h        3.3%        7.3%        5.3%
 30kt / 24h        3.3%        5.4%        4.3%
 35kt / 24h        3.3%        5.4%        4.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        4.4%        2.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        1.3%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.84

 WP172026 260826 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.60    125.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.1  32.5  30.1  27.9  30.7  18.8  15.1  15.3  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  57.0  59.0  57.0  59.0  58.0  63.0  70.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0 -12.0   9.0  16.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  U  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.9%        1.0%