Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172026 260826 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.60    125.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.1  31.2  32.9  34.8  27.2  16.8  15.6  13.5  U  U  U  U  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   1.0   3.0   6.0  50.0  41.0  37.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0  -1.0 -39.0 -47.0  -3.0  20.0  35.0  17.0  U  U VU VU  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  57.0  55.0  55.0  57.0  57.0  65.0  67.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0  -5.0  -9.0  -8.0   4.0  19.0  11.0  F  N  F  F  F  N VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        1.2%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        1.3%        3.7%        2.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.3%        2.2%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        2.2%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.9%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.86

 WP172026 260826 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.60    125.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.1  31.2  32.9  34.8  27.2  16.8  15.6  13.5  F  N  F  F  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  57.0  55.0  55.0  57.0  57.0  65.0  67.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0  -5.0  -9.0  -8.0   4.0  19.0  11.0  U  N  U  U  U  N VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.4%        1.2%