Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172026 260827 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.40    124.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.2  32.9  34.5  29.2  20.2  14.8  13.8  15.3  N  U  U  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   7.0  41.0  48.0  44.0  40.0  44.0  47.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -48.0 -52.0 -19.0  -9.0  15.0  29.0 -12.0  57.0 VU VU  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  53.0  54.0  54.0  55.0  59.0  69.0  77.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -6.0 -13.0 -10.0   7.0  11.0   9.0  16.0  N  F VF  F  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.9%        4.5%        5.2%
 25kt / 24h        7.3%       10.8%        9.1%
 30kt / 24h        7.3%        8.2%        7.8%
 35kt / 24h        7.3%        8.2%        7.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        6.9%        3.9%
 45kt / 36h        3.3%        3.7%        3.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        1.0%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        3.4%        1.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.6%        0.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.80

 WP172026 260827 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.40    124.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.2  32.9  34.5  29.2  20.2  14.8  13.8  15.3  N  F  F  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  53.0  54.0  54.0  55.0  59.0  69.0  77.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -6.0 -13.0 -10.0   7.0  11.0   9.0  16.0  N  U VU  U  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%