Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172026 260827 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.20    123.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.9  31.7  24.3  16.0  21.6  13.3  16.7  15.7  U  U  N  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0  41.0  48.0  45.0  46.0  38.0  45.0  46.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -54.0   0.0  -5.0 -19.0  25.0  16.0   2.0  18.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  53.0  52.0  51.0  54.0  61.0  65.0  73.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -8.0  -1.0   2.0   4.0   6.0   2.0   4.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.2%        2.3%        2.7%
 25kt / 24h        5.4%       10.4%        7.9%
 30kt / 24h        5.4%        7.1%        6.3%
 35kt / 24h        5.4%        7.1%        6.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        7.1%        4.1%
 45kt / 36h        3.5%        2.7%        3.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.9%        0.7%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        3.8%        2.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.0%        1.5%        1.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.74

 WP172026 260827 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.20    123.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.9  31.7  24.3  16.0  21.6  13.3  16.7  15.7  F  N  N  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  53.0  52.0  51.0  54.0  61.0  65.0  73.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -8.0  -1.0   2.0   4.0   6.0   2.0   4.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%