Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172026 260828 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.50    116.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.5  15.0  13.3   9.7  17.5   8.9  15.8  15.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  45.0  47.0  48.0  49.0  49.0  48.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0  15.0  15.0  29.0  54.0  26.0  25.0  27.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  65.0  68.0  70.0  75.0  78.0  75.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   5.0   4.0   3.0   0.0   3.0  -1.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        4.1%        2.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        5.6%        3.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h       12.6%        8.6%       10.6%
 70kt / 48h        4.5%        2.7%        3.6%
 65kt / 72h       31.7%       19.5%       25.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.00

 WP172026 260828 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.50    116.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.5  15.0  13.3   9.7  17.5   8.9  15.8  15.8  N  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  65.0  68.0  70.0  75.0  78.0  75.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   5.0   4.0   3.0   0.0   3.0  -1.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%