Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172026 260829 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.90    115.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  18.7  12.0  17.9  20.2  17.3  24.9  27.7  N  N  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  44.0  48.0  47.0  44.0  45.0  45.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  48.0  41.0  14.0  41.0  22.0  44.0  16.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  67.0  67.0  69.0  72.0  79.0  77.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   7.0   4.0  20.0  18.0  15.0  24.0  19.0  U  N  N VU VU  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        1.8%       13.9%        7.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        4.7%        2.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        3.7%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.7%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        3.4%       25.9%       14.7%
 55kt / 36h        2.1%       10.6%        6.4%
 55kt / 48h       19.6%       15.9%       17.8%
 70kt / 48h        8.0%       10.8%        9.4%
 65kt / 72h       20.2%       25.1%       22.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.90

 WP172026 260829 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.90    115.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  18.7  12.0  17.9  20.2  17.3  24.9  27.7  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  67.0  67.0  69.0  72.0  79.0  77.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   7.0   4.0  20.0  18.0  15.0  24.0  19.0  F  N  N VF VF  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%