Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172026 260829 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.00    115.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.9  17.7  19.1  22.4  13.4  19.7  18.6  23.9  F  F  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  44.0  46.0  47.0  45.0  45.0  44.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  26.0  41.0  62.0  42.0  30.0  36.0  39.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  69.0  72.0  75.0  78.0  78.0  79.0  79.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   0.0  -5.0   0.0   1.0   7.0  -1.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.7%       13.4%        7.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        4.5%        2.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        3.5%        1.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.4%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        4.1%       30.5%       17.3%
 55kt / 36h        2.6%       13.3%        7.9%
 55kt / 48h       20.8%       18.9%       19.9%
 70kt / 48h        9.0%       16.0%       12.5%
 65kt / 72h       22.2%       42.1%       32.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.90

 WP172026 260829 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.00    115.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.9  17.7  19.1  22.4  13.4  19.7  18.6  23.9  U  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  69.0  72.0  75.0  78.0  78.0  79.0  79.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   0.0  -5.0   0.0   1.0   7.0  -1.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%