Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172026 260829 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.40    112.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.9  18.2  26.4  30.9  34.0  34.0  34.0  34.0  F  F  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  45.0  44.0  45.0  46.0  46.0  46.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  63.0  52.0  35.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  74.0  73.0  70.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.0  21.0  17.0  26.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  23.0 VU VU  U VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.3%       10.5%        5.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        3.3%        1.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.5%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.5%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%       13.2%        7.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        4.1%        2.3%
 55kt / 48h        6.3%        5.0%        5.6%
 70kt / 48h        1.6%        2.5%        2.0%
 65kt / 72h        7.5%        6.7%        7.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.72

 WP172026 260829 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.40    112.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.9  18.2  26.4  30.9  34.0  34.0  34.0  34.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  74.0  73.0  70.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.0  21.0  17.0  26.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  23.0 VF VF  F VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%