Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172026 260831 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    111.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    143.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  18.8  14.2  16.6  20.3  20.2  23.0  25.1  F  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  43.0  41.0  48.0  15.0  46.0  43.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        139.3 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    82.0  76.0  84.0  64.0  48.0  26.0   7.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  80.0  81.0  80.0  83.0  78.0  78.0  75.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0  -1.0  -2.0  -3.0  -1.0  -3.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.8%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        7.4%       24.2%       15.8%
 30kt / 24h        3.6%        9.4%        6.5%
 35kt / 24h        2.2%        9.4%        5.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        9.4%        4.8%
 45kt / 36h        8.6%       32.3%       20.4%
 55kt / 36h        4.6%       13.1%        8.9%
 55kt / 48h       14.6%       17.6%       16.1%
 70kt / 48h        5.5%       13.1%        9.3%
 65kt / 72h        8.5%       30.3%       19.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.56

 WP172026 260831 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    111.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    143.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  18.8  14.2  16.6  20.3  20.2  23.0  25.1  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  80.0  81.0  80.0  83.0  78.0  78.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0  -1.0  -2.0  -3.0  -1.0  -3.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%