Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172026 260831 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20    112.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    142.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.7  36.4  31.2  22.3  23.7  23.3  27.3  31.2  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  44.0  41.0  43.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  17.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        139.3 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  86.0  51.0  39.0  70.0  30.0  43.0  34.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  84.0  83.0  82.0  84.0  83.0  78.0  70.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -7.0 -20.0 -10.0  -9.0   4.0   5.0  10.0  N  F VF  F  F  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        5.8%        3.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.5%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%        7.4%        4.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        1.6%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        1.0%        3.8%        2.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        6.9%        3.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.58

 WP172026 260831 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20    112.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    142.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.7  36.4  31.2  22.3  23.7  23.3  27.3  31.2  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  84.0  83.0  82.0  84.0  83.0  78.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -7.0 -20.0 -10.0  -9.0   4.0   5.0  10.0  N  U VU  U  U  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%