Rapid Intensification Guidance WP172026 260901 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.50 112.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 18.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 10.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.10 F TC SIZE [%] 144.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.2 32.5 27.9 30.0 32.1 26.7 28.2 23.5 U U N N U N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 46.0 42.0 43.0 18.0 16.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 N N N U U U U U Potential [kt] 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 73.0 57.0 24.0 20.0 5.0 0.0 10.0 18.0 N N U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 86.0 84.0 85.0 87.0 85.0 83.0 78.0 74.0 F F F VF F F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -15.0 -15.0 -7.0 -1.0 -11.0 -2.0 0.0 -1.0 VF VF F N F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.7% 5.5% 3.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.5% 0.8% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 1.2% 0.7% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.1% 0.5% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 5.3% 2.8% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 1.2% 0.6% 55kt / 48h 0.2% 2.6% 1.4% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 1.4% 0.7% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 6.3% 3.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.76 WP172026 260901 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.50 112.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 144.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.2 32.5 27.9 30.0 32.1 26.7 28.2 23.5 F N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 86.0 84.0 85.0 87.0 85.0 83.0 78.0 74.0 U U U VU U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -15.0 -15.0 -7.0 -1.0 -11.0 -2.0 0.0 -1.0 VU VU U N U N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%