Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172026 260901 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00    114.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    139.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.3  27.8  29.9  36.1  22.5  26.2  25.0  25.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  47.0  18.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  15.0  40.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  24.0  20.0  48.0  -3.0   5.0   2.0  25.0  N  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  86.0  87.0  87.0  83.0  80.0  73.0  68.0  F  F VF VF  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0  -7.0  -1.0 -14.0   0.0  -1.0   4.0   4.0 VF  F  N VF  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        1.5%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        3.2%        9.7%        6.5%
 30kt / 24h        2.0%        3.0%        2.5%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%        2.9%        2.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        2.9%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        1.4%        9.4%        5.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        2.5%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        3.4%        1.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.0%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        6.8%        3.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.80

 WP172026 260901 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00    114.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    139.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.3  27.8  29.9  36.1  22.5  26.2  25.0  25.0  F  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  86.0  87.0  87.0  83.0  80.0  73.0  68.0  U  U VU VU  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0  -7.0  -1.0 -14.0   0.0  -1.0   4.0   4.0 VU  U  N VU  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%