Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172026 260901 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80    115.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  22.0  24.6  19.7  26.0  32.6  25.2  39.5  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  18.0  16.0  16.0  18.0  40.0  45.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  17.0  34.0  31.0  16.0  27.0  -1.0   0.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  80.0  81.0  79.0  76.0  67.0  68.0  62.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -5.0 -10.0  -5.0  -6.0  11.0   9.0   5.0  N  F  F  F  F  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        1.9%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        4.0%       15.1%        9.6%
 30kt / 24h        2.2%        6.4%        4.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.2%        6.4%        4.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        6.4%        3.3%
 45kt / 36h        3.3%       15.0%        9.2%
 55kt / 36h        1.5%        5.5%        3.5%
 55kt / 48h        1.3%        7.0%        4.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        3.5%        1.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.6%        7.1%        3.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.84

 WP172026 260901 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80    115.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  22.0  24.6  19.7  26.0  32.6  25.2  39.5  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  80.0  81.0  79.0  76.0  67.0  68.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -5.0 -10.0  -5.0  -6.0  11.0   9.0   5.0  N  U  U  U  U  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%