Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172026 260902 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.10    116.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.4  16.7  16.3  23.1  30.0  25.7  26.2  21.4  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  16.0  17.0  17.0  15.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  14.0   2.0   9.0  43.0  10.0 -10.0   2.0  N  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  83.0  81.0  78.0  75.0  71.0  66.0  61.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0   5.0   0.0   3.0  -2.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.7%       13.7%        7.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        6.2%        3.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        5.6%        3.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        4.8%        2.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%       11.5%        6.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        3.7%        2.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        6.1%        3.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.5%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        7.2%        3.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.84

 WP172026 260902 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.10    116.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.4  16.7  16.3  23.1  30.0  25.7  26.2  21.4  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  83.0  81.0  78.0  75.0  71.0  66.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0   5.0   0.0   3.0  -2.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%