Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172026 260902 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.30    117.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.5  16.3  21.6  28.4  26.4  30.6  22.7  26.4  F  F  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  17.0  15.0  15.0  50.0  47.0  51.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0   1.0   9.0  17.0  20.0  16.0  -1.0 -17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  81.0  78.0  75.0  71.0  71.0  68.0  67.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   3.0   5.0   3.0   8.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        2.3%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        2.9%       16.9%        9.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        7.8%        4.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        7.5%        4.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        6.4%        3.2%
 45kt / 36h        1.8%       18.7%       10.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.8%        7.2%        4.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.9%        8.8%        4.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        4.4%        2.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.3%       12.0%        6.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.80

 WP172026 260902 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.30    117.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.5  16.3  21.6  28.4  26.4  30.6  22.7  26.4  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  81.0  78.0  75.0  71.0  71.0  68.0  67.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   3.0   5.0   3.0   8.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%