Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172026 260902 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.90    117.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    143.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.2  13.7  19.7  26.0  29.0  29.6  27.0  27.2  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  15.0  15.0  46.0  51.0  50.0  51.0  51.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0  -7.0  16.0  13.0  -6.0   2.0   9.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  77.0  75.0  72.0  71.0  65.0  65.0  62.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  11.0   0.0   7.0  -3.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        3.0%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        4.1%       21.6%       12.8%
 30kt / 24h        2.1%       11.1%        6.6%
 35kt / 24h        2.1%       10.5%        6.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        9.3%        4.7%
 45kt / 36h        3.1%       23.4%       13.2%
 55kt / 36h        1.6%       10.2%        5.9%
 55kt / 48h        1.4%        9.4%        5.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        4.7%        2.5%
 65kt / 72h        1.5%       11.5%        6.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.82

 WP172026 260902 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.90    117.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    143.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.2  13.7  19.7  26.0  29.0  29.6  27.0  27.2  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  77.0  75.0  72.0  71.0  65.0  65.0  62.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  11.0   0.0   7.0  -3.0   0.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%