Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172026 260902 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.40    118.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    137.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.9  20.5  20.6  15.0  26.4  22.7  33.2  24.1  F  N  N  F  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  18.0  16.0  15.0  51.0  50.0  50.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0  22.0  16.0  -6.0   6.0   1.0  -7.0 -15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  74.0  71.0  70.0  68.0  64.0  62.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0   2.0   1.0   2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        4.8%        3.4%
 25kt / 24h        7.7%       29.6%       18.7%
 30kt / 24h        5.0%       16.9%       10.9%
 35kt / 24h        5.0%       16.9%       10.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%       16.7%        8.5%
 45kt / 36h        6.6%       32.1%       19.3%
 55kt / 36h        3.8%       16.2%       10.0%
 55kt / 48h        4.9%       16.3%       10.6%
 70kt / 48h        1.3%        9.5%        5.4%
 65kt / 72h        1.9%       14.8%        8.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.80

 WP172026 260902 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.40    118.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    137.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.9  20.5  20.6  15.0  26.4  22.7  33.2  24.1  U  N  N  U  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  74.0  71.0  70.0  68.0  64.0  62.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0   2.0   1.0   2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%