Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172026 260903 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.80    117.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.6  32.0  24.8  21.4  29.3  29.3  29.3  29.3  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  48.0  47.0  51.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  17.0   0.0   9.0 -16.0 -16.0 -16.0 -16.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  73.0  71.0  71.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   9.0  11.0  11.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        4.0%        3.2%
 25kt / 24h        9.6%       26.3%       18.0%
 30kt / 24h        5.3%       14.2%        9.8%
 35kt / 24h        4.3%       14.2%        9.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%       12.9%        6.8%
 45kt / 36h        5.4%       22.5%       14.0%
 55kt / 36h        2.8%        9.3%        6.0%
 55kt / 48h        2.4%        9.3%        5.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        3.6%        2.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        5.1%        3.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.10

 WP172026 260903 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.80    117.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.6  32.0  24.8  21.4  29.3  29.3  29.3  29.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  73.0  71.0  71.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   9.0  11.0  11.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  N  F  F  F VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%