Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172026 260903 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.40    116.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    142.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.1  24.5  24.5  24.5  24.5  24.5  24.5  24.5  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.7%        2.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        4.5%        2.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        1.0%        3.4%        2.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        3.0%        4.4%        3.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.12

 WP172026 260903 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.40    116.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    142.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.1  24.5  24.5  24.5  24.5  24.5  24.5  24.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%