Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172026 260903 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.60    115.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.0  26.5  31.7  32.7  28.6  31.2  32.9  28.4  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  51.0  49.0  50.0  52.0  13.0  14.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -6.0 -15.0 -17.0 -10.0  12.0 -11.0   6.0 -58.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  69.0  68.0  67.0  69.0  67.0  69.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0  13.0   9.0  19.0   5.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  U  U  U VU  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        2.0%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.10

 WP172026 260903 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.60    115.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.0  26.5  31.7  32.7  28.6  31.2  32.9  28.4  N  N  N  F  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  69.0  68.0  67.0  69.0  67.0  69.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0  13.0   9.0  19.0   5.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  F  F  F VF  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%