Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172026 260903 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.60    114.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.7  25.8  22.5  13.2  22.6  18.1  23.9  23.8  N  N  N  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0  49.0  50.0  50.0  53.0  52.0  53.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0  16.0  16.0  13.0  18.0   7.0   9.0  -9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  66.0  67.0  66.0  65.0  59.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   5.0   8.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        8.8%        4.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        2.6%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.9%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.9%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        1.6%       16.8%        9.2%
 55kt / 36h        1.3%        5.7%        3.5%
 55kt / 48h       15.2%       10.0%       12.6%
 70kt / 48h        5.8%        7.4%        6.6%
 65kt / 72h       20.1%       26.6%       23.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.06

 WP172026 260903 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.60    114.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.7  25.8  22.5  13.2  22.6  18.1  23.9  23.8  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  66.0  67.0  66.0  65.0  59.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   5.0   8.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%