Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182026 260820 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    108.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.2  32.6  30.9  25.0  31.0  32.7  34.6  34.2  N  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  56.0  55.0  58.0  63.0  64.0  65.0   8.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -19.0 -22.0 -14.0  -9.0 -27.0  29.0  -2.0  11.0  U VU  U  U VU  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  74.0  73.0  73.0  77.0  76.0  80.0  F  F  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   5.0   5.0   0.0   0.0  -5.0   7.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        8.6%        4.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        3.2%        1.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        2.8%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.9%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%       12.1%        6.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        4.0%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        4.6%        2.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.5%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        6.7%        3.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.24

 WP182026 260820 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    108.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.2  32.6  30.9  25.0  31.0  32.7  34.6  34.2  N  F  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  74.0  73.0  73.0  77.0  76.0  80.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   5.0   5.0   0.0   0.0  -5.0   7.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%