Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182026 260821 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20    108.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.2  28.3  25.5  27.1  29.1  33.8  34.9  31.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  15.0   5.0  56.0  20.0  20.0  14.0  20.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0  -1.0 -23.0  -4.0   7.0   3.0  20.0  17.0  U  U VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  72.0  73.0  74.0  78.0  76.0  81.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   2.0   4.0   1.0   5.0   5.0   6.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        6.5%        3.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.3%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.0%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        7.3%        3.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        2.2%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        2.7%        1.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        1.3%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        3.2%        1.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.24

 WP182026 260821 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20    108.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.2  28.3  25.5  27.1  29.1  33.8  34.9  31.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  72.0  73.0  74.0  78.0  76.0  81.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   2.0   4.0   1.0   5.0   5.0   6.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%