Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182026 260821 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.60    108.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  16.5  18.9  25.0  33.2  33.3  35.4  35.4  N  F  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  55.0   2.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0  10.0  33.0  56.0  70.0  86.0  44.0  55.0  U  U  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  70.0  70.0  73.0  75.0  77.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0   0.0   7.0   5.0   3.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        3.8%        2.5%
 25kt / 24h        6.9%       27.1%       17.0%
 30kt / 24h        3.0%       14.2%        8.6%
 35kt / 24h        2.8%       14.2%        8.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%       12.5%        6.4%
 45kt / 36h        2.8%       27.2%       15.0%
 55kt / 36h        1.2%       12.1%        6.6%
 55kt / 48h        1.4%        9.8%        5.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        5.7%        2.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.5%        9.5%        5.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.28

 WP182026 260821 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.60    108.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  16.5  18.9  25.0  33.2  33.3  35.4  35.4  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  70.0  70.0  73.0  75.0  77.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0   0.0   7.0   5.0   3.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%