Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182026 260821 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80    108.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.6  31.5  34.0  32.1  32.3  38.0  46.3  44.9  N  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  13.0   4.0  20.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -7.0  -4.0  -4.0   7.0   3.0  18.0  12.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  70.0  70.0  72.0  77.0  75.0  80.0  79.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   6.0  11.0  12.0   7.0  23.0  22.0  21.0  N  N  U  U  N VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        2.2%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.8%       11.0%        6.4%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        4.6%        3.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        4.4%        2.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.8%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%       10.1%        5.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        3.2%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        3.1%        1.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.20

 WP182026 260821 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80    108.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.6  31.5  34.0  32.1  32.3  38.0  46.3  44.9  N  N  F  N  N  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  70.0  70.0  72.0  77.0  75.0  80.0  79.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   6.0  11.0  12.0   7.0  23.0  22.0  21.0  N  N  F  F  N VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%