Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182026 260821 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.00    108.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.0  34.1  35.5  28.7  32.4  34.0  36.3  39.6  N  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  11.0  57.0  56.0  14.0  20.0  20.0  14.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -4.0  -3.0  -2.0 -18.0   6.0  17.0  26.0  34.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  72.0  74.0  74.0  76.0  79.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   8.0  10.0  11.0   2.0   4.0   4.0   8.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.0%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        7.7%        4.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        3.1%        1.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        2.8%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.1%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        6.1%        3.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        2.3%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.8%        1.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.26

 WP182026 260821 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.00    108.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.0  34.1  35.5  28.7  32.4  34.0  36.3  39.6  N  F  F  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  72.0  74.0  74.0  76.0  79.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   8.0  10.0  11.0   2.0   4.0   4.0   8.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%