Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182026 260822 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.10    108.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  19.4  23.2  29.5  33.3  33.8  40.0  40.7  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0   5.0  56.0  58.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  58.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  39.0  48.0  44.0  46.0  43.0  16.0  27.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  72.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  78.0  77.0  79.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   1.0   3.0   2.0   1.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        2.6%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        5.5%       21.2%       13.3%
 30kt / 24h        1.9%       10.6%        6.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.9%       10.3%        6.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        8.6%        4.3%
 45kt / 36h        2.3%       16.6%        9.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.7%        5.8%        3.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        6.5%        3.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.6%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        4.4%        2.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.28

 WP182026 260822 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.10    108.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  19.4  23.2  29.5  33.3  33.8  40.0  40.7  N  N  N  N  F  F  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  72.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  78.0  77.0  79.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   1.0   3.0   2.0   1.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%