Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182026 260822 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.10    108.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.1  27.2  31.0  30.7  31.0  40.3  38.4  29.1  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   56.0  58.0  10.0  20.0   6.0   6.0  13.0  15.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  -8.0   5.0  -6.0  22.0  14.0  10.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  75.0  76.0  75.0  78.0  77.0  79.0  78.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   6.0   6.0   5.0   7.0   4.0   4.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        4.3%        2.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.5%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        3.5%        1.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.30

 WP182026 260822 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.10    108.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.1  27.2  31.0  30.7  31.0  40.3  38.4  29.1  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  75.0  76.0  75.0  78.0  77.0  79.0  78.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   6.0   6.0   5.0   7.0   4.0   4.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%